Jan[2] - Market Updates

Singapore:
2016 was definitely a happening year. STI was riding in roller coaster throughout. We witnessed 10 years bottom of crude oil, and two hyper-volatile days on BREXIT and US Election. Banks' asset has been deteriorating due to bond defaulting risk rising from local offshore sector.

Although the index failed to break out from 2967 in its three attempts this year, a higher low formation as below gave some relief sign. Market could have absorbed most of the worries. STI is moving into narrowing corner of ascending triangle. A quadruple top break up looks possible on 2017.

Market Calendar on coming week:
(SG: Singapore; CH: China; UK: United Kingdom; US: USA; JP: Japan)

Jan[1] - Yield Hunting

Among STI constituents, following counters were trading at dividend yield > 4%. Due to entry of 4th telco, Singtel has been trading at its lower zone based on price movement in past four years. Its reportedly $2.5b IPO plan could be price catalyst on 2017. Recent oil price recovery improved market sentiment towards banks. OCBC is trading at highest yield among its peers meanwhile. New acquisition from Barclays could be earning catalyst in future.

Among REITs (dividend yield > 5.5%), following counters were shortlisted because of their lower liabilities and high interest coverage. CapitaMall Trust has advantage in location of its local retail assets. IPO debut on 2016, Frasers Logistics & Industrial Trust is proxy to growing demand for industrial space in Australia.

Recent bullish USD defeated gold, thus gold miner, CNMC Goldmine was facing down selling headwind. The counter is raising production margin to offset downward pressure of gold price. With little debt (<1% gearing), it offers consistent payout of dividend in the past. Current price translates to ~2% yield. CNMC closely tracking gold price movement, so it could be star performer in one's portfolio, especially when stock market is in panic selling condition (eg. Brexit and pre-US election this year). Further information can be referred to Nov[3] in 2016.

Dec[8] - Market Updates

Singapore:
Following retreat of bank, STI had a falling week. Volume was thin in the week when most have been out of town. Coming to post Christmas week, volume could be no much change. Price is near to support 2856. Let's see whether the last week of 2016 could end with a rebound!

Market Calendar on coming week:
(SG: Singapore; CH: China; UK: United Kingdom; US: USA; JP: Japan)

Dec[7] - Capitaland (Hunt the asset)

COUNTER: CAPITALAND LIMITED

OVERVIEW:
Headquartered in Singapore, Capitaland is one of the Asia's largest real estate companies. Its portfolio includes integrated developments, shopping malls, serviced residences, offices and homes across Asia countries. REITs under its business structure includes Capitaland Mall Trust, Capitaland Commercial Trust, Ascott Resisdence Trust, Capitaland Retail China Trust and Capitaland Malaysia Mall Trust.

HIGHLIGHTS:
[1] Latest quarter saw revenue and net profit up 27% and 11% year on year. Adjusted profit for past 9 months up 13% year on year.

[2] 81% of asset are located in Singapore and China. In China, 93% of property are in tier 1 and 2 cities. 76% of total asset contributes to recurring income.

[3] Total debt/equity ~ 65%, Interest coverage ~ 4.

INVESTMENT THEMES:
[1] 9 month earning per shares - 0.17 || Dividend per shares ~ 0.09 || Net Tangible Asset - 3.9
Last trading price 2.97 translates to PE ~ 13, dividend yield > 3% and 24% discount to net tangible asset value, which is attractive.

[2] Management indicated resilient and steady performance from local market. More residential projects to be launched in China as well as Vietnam, so higher revenue to be recognized on coming quarter.

[3] The group managed to recycle mature assets into listed REITs as well as its fund management platform, so as to reduce balance sheet requirement while scale up asset under management (AUM). It is now on track to grow AUM up to $10b by 2020.

[4] The group shows disciplined interest cost management record throughout the years, which could be well prepared for widely-expected high rising interest rate period ahead.

PRICE TREND:
Upon Yellen's latest announcement on rate hike and China president Xi Jinping's comment about cooling property speculation, local real estate counters were taking double blow. Selling pressure prevailed meantime. Looking at price trend of the counter, it used to range bounce between 2.8 to 3.2. Recent falling seems to be correction instead of panic selling. Bargain hunting period present instead, as it represents higher dividend yield as well as more discount into net tangible asset value.

Dec[6] - Market Updates

Singapore:
STI failed to form triple top break out from 2967. It closed ~1% lower last week. Immediate support is ~2909. Trend looks bullish meantime. Transaction volume has been improving since last November as highlighted. Coming to last two week of 2016, STI has actually covered the lost ground on Feb. It amazingly survived through BREXIT, Trump winning, etc. Most encouragingly, oil price has been moving up. A quadruple top break out still looks possible.

Market Calendar on coming week:
(SG: Singapore; CH: China; UK: United Kingdom; US: USA; JP: Japan)

Dec[5] - Singtel (Join the leader)

COUNTER: Singapore Telecommunications Limited

OVERVIEW:
The counter is a leading communication group with significant presence in Singapore and Australia (Optus). It own stakes in regional mobile associates, namely Bharti Airtel (India, South Asia and Africa), Telkomsel (Indonesia), Advanced Info Service (Thailand) and Globe Telecom (the Philippines). The services range include fixed line, mobile, data, internet, TV, infocomm technology (ICT) and digital solutions.

ANALYSIS:
[1] Last August, Singtel further acquired shares from Intouch (major shareholder of Thailand mobile operator AIS) and Bharti Telecom (India mobile operator) for a consideration of $2.47b. The funding mainly came from shares placement ($4.16 per Singtel shares) to Temasek which translates to ~2.4% shares dilution. Management indicated the acquisition will secure better economic benefit from regional market, as Thailand and India has been high-market growth to them. Although the transaction will prompt net adjusted leverage, Moody maintained its credit assessment to the company. 

[2] On Mid Nov, Thomson Reuters revealed that the company hired DBS, Morgan Stanley and UBS to handle an IPO of up to $2.5b for its broadband subsidiary NetLink Trust, which is expected to take place on 2nd or 3rd quarter of 2017. It could further enhance company cash-flow. A 'special dividend' could be announced due to one-off gain. 

[3] On December, it's Australia subsidiary, Optus announced a new 5 years Managed Services contract (worth ~$20m) with Townscville City Council as well as 3 years contract extension (worth ~$40m) with specialist security provider, Suretek. 

[4] On early December, TPG from Australia won the bidding to become 4th Telco in demestic market. The spectrum rights commences on April 2017, and TPG might launch its mobile on 2018. Among local telco incumbents, Singtel is widely recognized to be least impacted. Its debt gearing is lowest and earning stability is best among its peers. Mobile business occupy ~7% of the group and 37% of mobile service revenue came from enterprises (which are less likely to switch operator). Recent downward pressure among incumbents' share price presents opportunity to accumulate Singtel. 

PRICE vs YIELD CHART:
The counter will enter EX (expiry of dividend entitlement) on coming Monday. Price could fall ~0.68 (dividend paid) from last trading price 3.73. It could touch down to immediate support $3.6 which translates dividend yield ~4.8%, without considering further earning growth as well as any special dividend. It is pretty attractive yield. Compared to recent share placement price, $4.16, it is actually in deep discount ~14%.

*** Note: Same counter has been mentioned in Sep[1] 2016 ***  

Dec[4] - Market Updates

Singapore:
STI is trying to break 2960 in its third attempts this year. Looking backwards for past one year, it has been forming a higher low formation. Shall it form triple top break up from 2960, trend could be looking upwards for next year.

Market Calendar on coming week:
(SG: Singapore; CH: China; UK: United Kingdom; US: USA; JP: Japan)

Dec[3] - Cogent (Momentum is still on)

COUNTER: FIRST REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST

OVERVIEW:
Started as business providing point-to-point cargo transportation with small flee of trucks in 1960s. The company has grown into Singapore's leading logistics management service provider with broad based clientele from large local to multi-national companies. Now it operates management services in six business segments: Transportation, warehouse, container depot, automotive logistics, project cargo and property. Cogent One-Stop Logistics Hub is located at 1 Buroh Crescent, which is strategically located along Jalan Buroh and surrounded by major logistics facilities.

HIGHLIGHTS:
[1] Latest result saw its last 9 month revenue and profit up 5% and 30% year on year. The improvement was due to steady growing revenue across most business segments as well as effective cost management.

[2] For its operation in Malaysia, phase 1 construction of its first warehouse and container depot facilities in Port Klang Free Zone was completed on end of 2015. Operations have commenced on early 2016. Phase 2 (expansion of facility) has kicked off on mid 2016.

[3] Total debt/equity ~ 100% (fully secured), Interest coverage > 10.

INVESTMENT THEMES:
[1] JTC has issued letter of offer for construction of the Jurong Island Chemical Logistics Facility with 3.5 hectares. The land has been handed over to the company last October. It will develop, own and operate a multi-purpose logistics hub to support manufacturing operations on Jurong Island.

[2] The company has its cutting edge on logistics operation in highly land-productive and cost-effective manner. Its facility has been patented in numerous countries, including US, Europe, China, HK, Japan, etc. Management believe it will serve as springboard for future expansion in overseas that value land productivity.

[3] 9 month earning per shares (EPS) - 0.05 || Dividend per shares ~ 0.0188
Trading around 0.64, its forward PE is ~ 10 and dividend yield ~ 2.8% which is undemanding, considering its excellent earning record and visible growth in future. Dividend yield is usually low for company in growing momentum as cash need to be preserved.

PRICE TREND:
Looking backwards to 2014, the counter ever shot up in price while it announced profit improvement as well as completion of new logistics hub. Price rose to 0.48 then stabilized at 0.3. As its business prospect is getting much recognition from market, price slowly edging upwards on following years. Similar surge was seen on last July with announcement of second logistics hub. Price correction occurred since October. It gained support ~ 0.62 which translates to forward PE ~ 10. In term of valuation, it is similar scenario to 2014. Current correction presents entry window for long term investors.

Dec[2] - Market Updates

Singapore:
Led by bank and oil counters, STI has broken first resistance 2908. Immediate resistance is ~ 2970 which is also 2016 peak. Transaction volume (as highlighted below) has been ramping up since early November, therefore market tends to believe domestic market is back to favor of foreign fund. Coming week shall see rate decision among ECB, followed by FOMC on week after next.

 
Market Calendar on coming week:
(SG: Singapore; CH: China; UK: United Kingdom; US: USA; JP: Japan)

Dec[1] - FIRST REIT (Proxy to Indonesia Healthcare)

COUNTER: FIRST REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST

OVERVIEW:
The REIT counter invests in assets primarily used for healthcare and healthcare-related purposes. There are 17 properties in its portfolio. 13 in Indonesia, 3 in Singapore and 1 in South Korea.

HIGHLIGHTS:
[1] Latest quarter saw net property income and distribution per unit up 6% and 2% year on year. Similar increment was registered for past 9 months as well. The increment was due to newly acquired property on Dec 2015

[2] Management announced decision to acquire new property in Indonesia on early November. The acquisition will be funded by committed debt facility and internal cash.

[3] Total liabilities/Total asset ~36%. Interest coverage > 6. No debt to be repaid in one year.

INVESTMENT THEMES:
[1] Distribution per unit: 0.0212 (last quarter)

[2] Indonesia registered annual GDP growth rate 5% (SG:1.1%) for first three quarters this year. With improving economy and growing ageing population, management foresee healthcare sector to maintain its growth momentum in Indonesia.

[3] Newly announced acquisition offers potential earning upside.

PRICE TREND:
Similar to its peers, the counter has been falling in price recently. Current price is around middle range over past two years. Dividend yield is ~ 6.5%.

Nov[9] - Market Updates

Crude Oil:
Crude oil price fell 4% on last trading day. Immediate support is ~45. Stronger Support is around 41.5 ~ 43. Ahead of OPEC meeting next week, most regional indices have been riding a bullish week. Shall OPEC fails to deliver any satisfying production cut, oil traders could react badly. It would be interesting to see whether recent happy Thanksgiving mood gets affected.

Market Calendar on coming week:
(SG: Singapore; CH: China; UK: United Kingdom; US: USA; JP: Japan)

Nov[8] - REITs Screener

REIT counters used to be sensitive to movement of interest rate. While market are preparing for rate hike announcement from FOMC, local REITs were facing headwind of selling. Hunting period is present. The following counters were shortlisted because of low borrowing and stable income from its assets: CDL Hospitality Trust (CDL HT) and Capitaland Commercial Trust (CCT). Respective price vs yield chart are below.

Nov[7] - REITs Screener

REIT counters used to be sensitive to movement of interest rate. While market are preparing for rate hike announcement from FOMC, local REITs were facing headwind of selling. Hunting period is present. The following counters were shortlisted because of low borrowing and stable income from its assets: Frasers Logistics & Industrial Trust (FLT) and Capitamall Trust (CMT). Respective price vs yield chart are below.

Nov[6] - Market Updates

Singapore:
Generally market has been calming down upon election week. Coming to end of 2016, market is looking towards last OPEC meeting and FOMC. STI saw short rebound last few trading days. Immediate resistance at 2863. No major events or announcement on coming week.

Market Calendar on coming week:
(SG: Singapore; CH: China; UK: United Kingdom; US: USA; JP: Japan)

Nov[5] - Financial Highlights

The following counters released respective latest financial results last week. A summary is provided.
Centurion, Vallianz, Bumitama, Global Invest, ThaiBev

Nov[4] - Market Updates

Crude Oil:
Crude oil price has been falling ahead of OPEC meeting by end of Nov. It residing at support, 43. Shall this be broken, next support would be 41.5. It shall be next market theme since US election is over.

Market Calendar on coming week:
(SG: Singapore; CH: China; UK: United Kingdom; US: USA; JP: Japan)

Nov[3] - Financial Highlights

The following counters released respective latest financial results last week. A summary is provided.
CNMC Goldmine, Global Logistics, SingTel, ST Engineering (ST Eng), ComfortDelgro (CDG), Talkmed, 800 Super, Ezion, Silverlake Axis, Manulife US REIT, Asian Pay TV Trust (APTT)

Nov[2] - Market Updates

Singapore:
STI broke support 2798 on last trading day. Next strong support shall be 2705 which was hit during BREXIT. Coupling with sliding oil price, investor shall sit tight for potential volatile week ahead.

Market Calendar on coming week:
(SG: Singapore; CH: China; UK: United Kingdom; US: USA; JP: Japan)

Nov[1] - Financial Highlights

The following counters released respective latest financial results last week. A summary is provided.
DBS, Starhub, SIA, Singpost, OUE H Trust 

 

Oct[10] - Market Updates

Singapore:
Over past two weeks, STI made a U turn from 2860 then head towards support 2798. Rising non-performing-loan from OCBC and UOB dampened market sentiment. Next heavy-weight counter, DBS will open book to public on coming Monday. It would be interesting to see whether support line, 2798 can withhold. Coming week will be full of exciting news globally, such as technical meeting among OPEC ministers, central banker meeting on Japan, UK and most importantly, US Fed. Market is counting down to US presidential election as well.

Market Calendar on coming week:
(SG: Singapore; CH: China; UK: United Kingdom; US: USA; JP: Japan)

Oct[9] - Financial Highlights

The following counters released respective latest financial results last week. A summary is provided.
Sheng Siong, Japfa, Sembco Industry, Sembco Marine, OCBC, UOB, Tianjin Zhongxin, HPH Trust, Mapletree Industrial Trust (MIT), Cambridge Industrial Trust (CIT).

Oct[8] - Market Updates

Singapore:
Last week saw generally weakening earning reports from listed companies. Focus shall be shifted to reports from few heavy weighted blue chips next week. Strong support ~ 2798 for STI. Trend looks weak but firm.

Market Calendar on coming week:
(SG: Singapore; CH: China; UK: United Kingdom; US: USA)

Oct[7] - Financial Highlights

The following counters released respective latest financial results last week. A summary is provided.
M1, SGX, Keppel Co, Triyards, Keppel DC Trust, Capitaland Mall Trust (CMT), Cache Logistics Trust

Oct[6] - Market Updates

US:
Dow Jones is lingering above 18034 which was triple top broken last July. The support withheld meanwhile. Market is accessing companies earning report in 3rd quarter. Potential worries is rate hike on year end. Current bullish oil price is cushioning recent downfall.

Although Yellen has been playing down on specific timeline for next rate hike. US 10 years treasuries notes has been climbing. Signs are pointing that market positioning for next rate hike announcement.

Market Calendar on coming week:
(SG: Singapore; CH: China; UK: United Kingdom; US: USA)

Oct[5] - Yield Screening

Following panic sell down in Dow Jones, STI experienced a quick falling last week. An early sign of rebound was seen on last trading day. 4 months support ~ 2797 still withhold. Interestingly most blue chips were lingering around major support prices. The following STI constituents were shortlisted because of their consistent and reliable dividend payout. Individual "price vs dividend yield chart" are shown below.

DBS: Due to fines over 1MDB and high exposure of borrowing to oil & gas companies, market is showing lack of confident to DBS meanwhile. The three month average price represents 8% discount to its book value (16.4) year to date. It is also interesting to notice that the group used to buy back shares from open market whenever price moving below 16. By last trading day, support price ~15 (dividend yield 4%) still intact. Shall it be broken, next support range will be 14.6 - 14.7

OCBC: It is giving the highest dividend yield among its peers meanwhile. Current price 8.4 represent dividend yield at 4.3%. 8 months support price ~ 8.2 is well above its book value (8.19).

UOB: Interestingly, it is hitting to its book value (18.2). Shall this be broken, next stronger support shall be 17.4 which represents 4% dividend yield.

SGX: It just broke support price ~ 7.3 which represents 3.5% dividend yield. Next support will be 7 which represents 4% dividend yield. The counter used to track market sentiment but in a cylindrical price movement. Three year average is ~7.4. Current share price is at lower zone.

ComfortDelgro: It is one of the few which offer high dividend growth rate ~ 8%. Current price is lingering ~2.7 which represents 3.4% dividend yield. Shall it be broken, next strong support is 2.6 which represent 3.6% dividend yield. Its subsidiary, SBS will be paid $5.3b for assets leasing to LTA up to 10 years.

Both SGX and ComnfortDelgro are in net cash position without any debt.